Tuesday, February 26, 2013

PRE GE 13 series Chapter 9: The scene of repeated names (your dad my dad) - Part III

In the previous chapter, MERAP mentioned about the same name wonders in Terengganu, Pahang, Kedah and Kelantan sharing similar dates of birth. Another further factor that raise one's suspicion is the high incidence of incomplete address.
Dalam bahagian yang lepas, MERAP telah membentangkan keadaan sama nama sama bapak di Terengganu, Pahang, Kedan dan Kelantan yang mempunyai tarikh lahir yang sama. Faktor lain yang mencurigakan adalah ramai antara pengundi tersebut tidak mempunyai alamat yang lengkap

Among the total of 46,377, MERAP's calculation suggest that approximately 63.3% of the voters were without a proper address.
63.3% daripada jumlah 46,377 pengundi yang ditinjau oleh MERAP boleh dikatakan tidak mempunyai butir alamat yang lengkap

Wednesday, February 20, 2013

PRE GE 13 series Chapter 8: The scene of repeated names (your dad my dad) - Part II

In Part I, MERAP have highlighted  46,377 voters in Pahang, Kelantan, Terengganu and Kedah, where the frequency of name repetition is too volumous to be dismissed as mere coincidence.
Dalam bahagian I,MERAP telah memaparkan seramai 46,377 orang pengundi di Pahang, Kelantan, Terengganu and Kedah di mana kekerapan nama-nama yang diulangi amat ketara dan tidak mungkin sekadar kebetulan sahaja.

From analysing and reviewing the voters' details, MERAP has highlighted 2 main anomalies; one of which is the subject of this blog post - same birth dates.
MERAP telah mendapati dua perkara yang aneh setelah membuat analisa butir-butir para pengundi tersebut. Perkara aneh pertama yang menjadi tajuk blog ini adalah tarikh lahir yang sama. 

Sunday, February 17, 2013

PRE GE 13 series Chapter 7: The scene of repeated names (your dad my dad) - Part I

Introduction to the series

MERAP'S FINAL REPORT October 2012, section 1.2 "Voters with the same name and same/similar Date of Birth", disclosed high instances where voters with the same names, many of whom share the same birth dates.
Menurut babak 1.2  dalam laporan MERAP yang diterbitkan dalam Oktober 2012 yang bertajuk "Pengundi-pengundi yang memiliki nama serta tarikh lahir yang sama", terdapat ramai pengundi berdaftar di mana nombor kad pendaftaran mereka menunjukkan mereka memiliki nama bahkan ramai antara mereka memiliki  tarikh lahir yang sama.

Most of these voters are registered in the same state, which means that it is theoretically possible for these voters to vote in more than one constituencies if these ‘couples’ are actually the same voter in person. 
Kebanyakan daripada pengundi-pengundi ini berdaftar sebagai pengundi di negeri yang sama, dan ini bermakna sekiranya pengundi tersebut sebenarnya adalah orang yang sama, maka seorang pengundi tersebut boleh mengundi  lebih daripada sekali.

According to the electoral roll for GE 2008 , there were 369 "Fatimah binti Ismails" and 346 "Fatimah binti Abdullahs" in Terengganu.
Menurut senarai pengundi untuk Pilihanraya Umum 2008 untuk Terengganu, terdapat 369 pengundi bernama Fatimah Binti Ismail dan 346 orang pengundi Fatimah binti Abdullah di negeri itu.

MERAP has extended the analysis to electoral roll Q3 2011 and notice the remarkable trend of repetition is pretty widespread and begets further analysis.
MERAP telah melanjutkan analisa tersebut kepada senarai pemilih sehingga Suku 3 2011 dan mendapati terdapat pengulangan nama yang amat meluas serta memerlukan analisa yang lebih mendalam lagi.

150 most commonly repeated names for 4 states - Kedah, Kelantan, Pahang and Terengganu are being analysed for unusual trend. The number of voters with the same names are set out in the following 6 tables, totally 46,377 voters in all:
150 nama yang sering diulangi dalam 4 negeri - Kedah, Kelantan,Pahang dan Terengganu telah diamati dengan lebih mendalam lagi. Bilangan pengundi-pengundi yang memiliki nama yang sama berjumlah 46,377 seperti jadual-jadual berikut:

sila klik jadual di bawah untuk lihat gambar yang lebih besar lagi jelas:-
MERAP apologise for the compressed graphs but you can click on all the graphs for full screen view

Wednesday, February 13, 2013

PRE GE 13 Chapter 6: Sabahans in Selangor

Introduction to the series

MERAP looked at some Sabah numbers and statistics in previous chapters. The "Sabah Tsunami" is not limited to Sabah itself; as the numbers of Sabahans registered as voters in Selangor reveal tales of its own.

The table below shows the number of Sabahans registered as voters in Selangor (SvS) before GE2008 and after GE up to Q1 2012.
Most SVSs are found in Pakatan Rakyat held constituencies

MERAP extracted the Selangor voters registered over the same duration with Sarawak and Kelantan KNs. These 2 states are chosen because 1) Kelantan is supposedly facing economic issues hence we would expect many Kelantanese to moved to Klang Valley for better opportunities like Sabahans   2) Sarawak, like Sabah, is located across the South China Sea hence its movement trend into Selangor should bear some resemblances to that of Sabah's.

The result of comparison is as follows:

For Kelantanese, the ratio for Pre and Post GE2008 looks more reasonable as there should be more voters registered in the previous decades as compared to the last 4 years. For Sarawak KNs, there seems to be a significant increase post GE2008 but the quantum is not as high as Sabahan KNs (5,511 Sarawakians vs 9,957 Sabahans)

Tuesday, February 5, 2013

PRE GE 13 series Chapter 5 : Scorecard over the years

Base on feedback by a reader, MERAP enclose the following time series analysis on the 108,033 voters whose "Bangsa" details indicated that they could be foreigners given voting rights in Sabah.
MERAP telah membuat analisa berikut mengenai 108,033 orang pemilih yang mempunyai butir "Bangsa" yang mencurigakan selepas menerima komen daripada seorang pembaca blog ini.

click on the chart to see the full graph
klik untuk lihat graf penuh

Saturday, February 2, 2013

PRE 13 GE series Chapter 4: seeing double

Introduction to the series

In Chapter 3, MERAP identified 108,033 voters whose "Bangsa" details warrant attention. One of the analysis MERAP did was to examine if there is any "suspicious double taking up" of voters following the discovery reported in Terengganu.*
Dalam bab 3, MERAP telah mengenalpasti seramai 108,033 pengundi di mana butir "Bangsa" mereka mencurigakan. MERAP telah membuat analisa yang lebih lanjut lagi kerana MERAP pernah menjumpai kes-kes yang serupa di Terengganu di mana terdapat rekod-rekod pemilih yang menunjukkan kemungkinan pendaftaran berganda.

*kindly refer to MERAP FINAL REPORT OCTOBER 2012: 1.2 Voters with the same name and same / similar Date of Birth

MERAP found 68 voters with the same names and same dates of birth as follows:
MERAP mendapati seramai 68 orang pemilih yang mempunyai nama dan tarikh lahir seperti berikut:

19 daripada mereka tidak memiliki nombor KP lama, 61 daripada mereka tidak mempunyai alamat yang lengkap dan 8 daripada mereka mengundi di kerusi parlimen yang sama.

Do note that MERAP applies very strict selection criteria. Had MERAP included people with exactly the same name but with even one small variation of date of birth, the total number of  suspicious voters could be more.
MERAP menggunakan kriteria pemilihan yang ketat. Seandainya MERAP mengambil kira pemilih yang memiliki nama yang sama tetapi tarikh lahir yang hampir sama, bilangan pengundi yang diragui itu akan menjadi lebih tinggi.

Thursday, January 31, 2013

Pre GE 13 Chapter 3: the Sabah stories by numbers

Introduction to the series

The on going Sabah RCI reveal much sensational facts and confirm a lot of rumours and hearsays. Project M or Project IC has completely altered the voters and political landscape of Sabah.

MERAP seeks to compliment the disclosures in the RCI with numbers, statistics and facts.

Tuesday, January 29, 2013

Pre GE13 chapter 2: New Very Old Voters (NVOV)

Introduction to the series

In the last chapter, MERAP looked at NVOVs from the years 2008 till Q3 2011. MERAP's scrutiny of the Q3 and Q4 2012 supplementary electoral roll reveal similar trend continuing in the final run up to GE13 which is expected to be called in Q1 2013.

Monday, January 28, 2013

Pre GE13 chapter 1: New Very Old Voters (NVOV)

Introduction to the series

Chapter 1.1 of MERAP's Final Reports raised the matter of voters above 85 years old, notably Tey Kim (IC: 900206740068) who was born in 1890.

EC has come out with the defence that it will beef up its information exchange process with Jabatan Pendaftaran Negara and to its credit, the number of voter deletions due to the reason of death have increased since the electoral roll attracts greater scrutiny from all quarters.

However, MERAP notice that despite the effort by the EC to remove deceased voters, there seems to be an effort by certain parties to continuously register people who are unlikely to be alive.

MERAP's series running up to GE13

GE13 is imminent. After much hinting and delay, boy cry wolf and trade secrets shadow play, the parliament shall reach its full term less than 100 days at the time of writing.

MERAP has been on going since early 2012 and in the run up to the 13th GE, shall publish a series of articles disclosing more of its findings, supplementing the cases disclosed in its Final Report published in October 2012.

Hopefully these articles can raise general public's awareness with regards to the irregularities occurring in the Electoral Roll which the Elections Commission Chairman once claim that is the cleanest in the world.

Perhaps this GE is as much as voting for the right government, as well as against irregularities and defending the assault on integrity of our election process.