Wednesday, February 13, 2013

PRE GE 13 Chapter 6: Sabahans in Selangor

Introduction to the series

MERAP looked at some Sabah numbers and statistics in previous chapters. The "Sabah Tsunami" is not limited to Sabah itself; as the numbers of Sabahans registered as voters in Selangor reveal tales of its own.

The table below shows the number of Sabahans registered as voters in Selangor (SvS) before GE2008 and after GE up to Q1 2012.
Most SVSs are found in Pakatan Rakyat held constituencies

MERAP extracted the Selangor voters registered over the same duration with Sarawak and Kelantan KNs. These 2 states are chosen because 1) Kelantan is supposedly facing economic issues hence we would expect many Kelantanese to moved to Klang Valley for better opportunities like Sabahans   2) Sarawak, like Sabah, is located across the South China Sea hence its movement trend into Selangor should bear some resemblances to that of Sabah's.

The result of comparison is as follows:

For Kelantanese, the ratio for Pre and Post GE2008 looks more reasonable as there should be more voters registered in the previous decades as compared to the last 4 years. For Sarawak KNs, there seems to be a significant increase post GE2008 but the quantum is not as high as Sabahan KNs (5,511 Sarawakians vs 9,957 Sabahans)

The following conclusions may be derived:

1) the number of SvSs  appearing in Selangor electoral roll for the past 4 years have exceeded the total number for the past 4 decades (ratio of 1.1 means for every 1 Sabahan registered for the past 4 decades, 1.1 more registered to vote in Selangor just within the past 4 years).

Notice the Hulu Langat Tsunami. Winning majority in GE2008 was merely 1,745. After the GE, 1,269 new voters with Sarawak and Sabah KNs were registred in/moved into Hulu Langat in significant numbers; exceeding the previous 4 decades.

When MERAP look into the Lokaliti (being the smallest delineation for election administration purposes); it is noted that these were mainly spouses of postal / advance voters.

  • PGA - Pasukan Gerakan Am - formerly know as Polis Hutan to combat Communist insurgents.
  • Pasukan Simpanan Persekutuan - Federal Reserve Units who made a name for themselves in BERSIH and other rallies
  • Note the above merely include the spouses of police officers; Police and Army identity card numbers do not disclose Kod Negeri hence the increase of service personnel from Sabah transferred into Selangor are not included in this table. Had they been included, the total addition would have exceeded the GE2008 winning majority by a very significant margin.
Note: line 11 till 331 are grouped together hence the apparent numbers do not add up to total

2) the highest increase of Sabahans are found in parliament constituencies held by Pakatan Rakyat MPs

It is plausible to argue that many Sabahans have come to Selangor in search of  better employment opportunities and living environment. If that is the case then it is a damning indictment of a state rich with oil and timber runned by Barisan Nasional and simulateneously an emphatic vote of confidence for a state runned by Pakatan Rakyat.

MERAP focus on electoral roll issues and would like to highlight the following findings:

1) there are instances of Sabahans who by their names do not appear to be related but are found huddled together in a single address.

Do take note also that in the 1999 Likas Election Petition where Justice Muhammad Kamil Awang ordered former Chief Minister Datuk Yong Teck Lee to vacate his Likas state assembly seat on the grounds that the 1998 Electoral Roll for that constituency was illegal. The  Electoral Roll ruled illegal by the court carried Project IC indentity cards with old IC serial numbers ranging from H0288001 to H0384000 and H0480001 to H0576000 (ref: page 28, "Lest We Forget, Dr Chong Eng Leong).

Both of the above old IC number falls within the range of the electoral roll ruled illegal


Do note that old IC of the 3rd voter is within the range of the electoral roll ruled illegal

Do note that the above 4 old IC numbers falls within the range of the electoral roll ruled illegal

Please note that the first two old IC numbers falls within the range of the electoral roll ruled illegal.

2) In additions, there are many "one name wonders" as the SPR print screen below shows:

Normally one would expect a Malaysian name would have more than 1 word or have a "Bin" or "Binti" attached. The above samples raise the suspicion of whether any of the registered votes, are bona finde Malaysians or do exist at all.

MERAP identified the following 28 one name wonders and notice that the registration dates are all post GE12. The one name wonders seems to appear only recently.

During Q2 2012 to Q4 2012, the tempo of SvS increase accelerated, with the greatest increase in Klang, Kota Raja and Subang. The total increase for the 9 months was 2,388; equivalent to 24% of  the total increase from GE2008 up to Q1 2012 (9,957). Perhaps this in an indication of last minute deployment of reinforcement?

Given the sudden surge in Sabahans in Selangor which is above the normal trend for the past 4 decades, there could be justifiable ground to suspect a Project IC, which is so successful in Sabah, is being replicated in Selangor. Perhaps the finding from this electoral roll analysis should be read vis-a-vis with the motives behind Teoh Beng Hock's treatment as a willing witness.

Note: respective Kod Negeriper JPN website


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